SPC MD 1506

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MD 1506 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435… FOR SRN NORTH DAKOTA…NRN SOUTH DAKOTA
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  MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2016  AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NORTH DAKOTA...NRN SOUTH DAKOTA  CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435...  VALID 100251Z - 100445Z  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435 CONTINUES.  SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS COULD STILL INCREASE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING.  AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF WW 435 PROBABLY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.  DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO AN UPSCALE GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR THE WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA STATE BORDER AREA.  THIS IS BECOMING MOSTLY FOCUSED TO THE COOLER/DRIER SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...BUT INFLOW OF MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ABOVE THE STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS MAINTAINING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  EVEN FOR INCREASINGLY ELEVATED CONVECTION...CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHEAR APPEARS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  DESPITE SOMEWHAT MODEST WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT...PROCESSES ON THE CONVECTIVE SCALE...INCLUDING A DEVELOPING REAR INFLOW JET...COULD STILL LEAD TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 05-06Z.  ..KERR.. 08/10/2016  ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...  ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...  LAT...LON   46030347 46979915 46579714 45129769 44570048 44980251             46030347   

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