SPC MD 1529

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MD 1529 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NRN PA…NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND
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  MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016  AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PA...NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY   VALID 131911Z - 132115Z  PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT  SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN PA...NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.  DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO CNTRL NY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WITH SFC TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S F. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND APPROACH 8.0 C/KM IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST. IN ADDITION...THE ALBANY WSR-88D VWP SHOWS VEERED WINDS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE SFC WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO EWD ACROSS CNTRL NY WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.  ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 08/13/2016  ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...  ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...  LAT...LON   41847247 42187222 42627211 43067256 43667384 43927515             43857658 43237850 42717893 42267889 41967824 41687486             41587315 41847247   

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